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27 November 2018

27/11/2018

Morning Chat & Market Data

Morning Chat

Flowing with Amazon: The S&P closed +1.55%, with tech stocks +2.25% and Amazon in particular +5.28%. The gains came as Adobe Analytics floated their assessment that from early sales trends, Cyber Monday should hit $7.8 billion of online sales, an 18.3% increase on last year, and November spending to date had passed the $50 billion mark – a 20% gain from 2017 with Amazon capturing about 40% of the sales flow. Adobe also estimated that a quarter of online sales came from smartphones which probably helped Apple recover its “largest company in the world” label it very briefly lost to Microsoft.

Martial law Azov now: Russian stock indices fell up to 3.0% yesterday after tensions escalated at the Kerch Straits, the entrance to the Sea of Azov. It’s a ratcheting up of ongoing tensions that have rumbled since rebels in Eastern Ukraine attempted to break away from the rest of the country following Crimea’s annexation by Russia in 2014. Russia seized three Ukrainian naval vessels and crew leading Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to declare martial law (not sure how that helps). Donald Trump said he’s not happy while news agencies have said they’re monitoring the fallout – I rather hope there isn’t.

With approval like this who needs friends: President Emmanuel Macron of France’s approval rating has plummeted to 25% - even Donald Trump is on 42.9%, a level Macron hasn’t seen since July. He lost approval over railway reforms and liberalising changes to labour laws, but now he faces a different challenge in the fuel riots. Diesel fuel – heavily relied upon in France - has risen by about 18% in a year with Macron’s tax changes adding a further 5-6% and another roughly 4% is coming in January. No wonder Macron’s looking for friends by demanding fishing rights from the UK.

Market Data 

Selected Global Aggregates (Total returns, unhedged)
MSCI AC World Equities (Local) up +14.04 (+1.24%) at 1,144 (YTD: -2.04%; 5YR: 47.6%)
MSCI AC World Equities (USD) up +99.85 (+1.23%) at 8,231 (YTD: -2.78%; 5YR: 39.3%)
Barclays Global Aggregate Bonds down -0.60 (-0.13%) at 469 (YTD: -3.26%; 5YR: 2.8%)

Selected Equity Indices
S&P 500 up +40.89 (+1.55%) at 2,673 (YTD: -0.01%; 5YR: 47.9%)
NASDAQ up +142.87 (+2.06%) at 7,082 (YTD: 2.59%; 5YR: 75.1%)
Euro STOXX 50 up +35.50 (+1.13%) at 3,173 (YTD: -9.45%; 5YR: 2.9%)
FTSE 100 up +83.14 (+1.20%) at 7,036 (YTD: -8.48%; 5YR: 5.8%)
CAC 40 up +48.03 (+0.97%) at 4,995 (YTD: -5.98%; 5YR: 16.4%)
DAX up +162.03 (+1.45%) at 11,355 (YTD: -12.10%; 5YR: 21.4%)
Nikkei 225 up +140.40 (+0.64%) at 21,952 (YTD: -3.57%; 5YR: 42.1%)
Hang Seng down -110.18 (-0.42%) at 26,266 (YTD: -12.21%; 5YR: 10.3%)
MSCI Emerging Markets up +7.40 (+0.76%) at 977 (YTD: -15.70%; 5YR: -3.2%)

Selected Government Bond Yields
US 10 Year up +0.01 at 3.06 (began the year at 2.41; 5 years ago it was 2.74)
US 2 Year up +0.00 at 2.83 (began the year at 1.88; 5 years ago it was 0.29)
UK 10 Year up +0.03 at 1.41 (began the year at 1.19; 5 years ago it was 2.77)
Germany 10 Year down -0.06 at 0.34 (began the year at 0.42; 5 years ago it was 1.72)
France 10 Year down -0.05 at 0.72 (began the year at 0.78; 5 years ago it was 2.18)
Italy 10 Year down -0.30 at 3.24 (began the year at 2.01; 5 years ago it was 4.06)
Japan 10 Year down -0.04 at 0.09 (began the year at 0.04; 5 years ago it was 0.60)
Barclays EM Basket up +0.02 at 6.18 (began the year at 5.49; 5 years ago it was 5.65)

Selected Currencies
€/$ down -0.001 (-0.09%) at 1.133 (YTD: -5.76%; 5YR: -16.5%)
£/€ down +0.004 (-0.34%) at 1.127 (YTD: 0.15%; 5YR: -6.4%)
£/$ down -0.006 (-0.43%) at 1.276 (YTD: -5.62%; 5YR: -21.6%)
$/¥ up +0.02 (-0.02%) at 113.50 (YTD: 0.81%; 5YR: 10.0%)

Selected Commodities
Brent Crude ($/bbl) down -0.23 (-0.38%) at 59.77 (YTD: -10.55%; 5YR: -46.8%)
WTI Crude ($/bbl) down +1.41 (+2.81%) at 51.63 (YTD: -14.55%; 5YR: -44.9%)
Gold ($/ozt) down -1.34 (-0.11%) at 1221.07 (YTD: -6.29%; 5YR: -1.4%)
Copper ($/mt) down -18.00 (-0.29%) at 6189.00 (YTD: -14.60%; 5YR: -12.4%)

Data sourced from Bloomberg as of the close of last trading day.
YTD = Year-to-date return; 5YR = five year return


SOURCES: BBC; The New York Times; FactSet; Al Jazeera; Financial Times; The Economist; Reuters; CNN; Wall Street Journal; CNBC; Google Finance; Seeking Alpha; The Idea Farm; Bloomberg, Twitter; Wikipedia; Investopedia; The Guardian; The Times of London; Google News; Numerous academic sources and journals; Trade bodies; Government institutions (e.g The Bank of England, The Federal Reserve).

 

 

Nicholas Lowson Senior Portfolio Manager Kleinwort Hambros