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9 April 2019

09/04/2019

Morning Chat and Market Data

Morning Chat 

Oil make it up to you: BP, up 1.69% yesterday, and Royal Dutch Shell, up 1.19% & 1.02% for the two share classes accounted for a FTSE100 gain of 16.579 points. Given the index closed up only 5.02 points or a Bond-like +0.07%, its fair to say the index as a whole ex oil majors was down 11.559 points. Oil carried the day. Not surprising as Brent crude crossed above $70 a barrel for the first time since early November. The escalation of fighting in Libya coupled with on-going supply concerns over Iran sanctions and Venezuela are the key drivers.

Nearly there: The S&P500 all-time intra-day high is 2940.91. The index closed 0.10% up at 2895.77, or 1.53% away from the high. Given the strong rally on Friday, there was every chance a new high could have been set, but the US factory and durable goods orders releases didn’t offer any big stimulus. Both came in in-line with estimates at -0.5% and -1.6% month-on-month respectively as expected. Moreover, there was no fresh news on the US-China trade talks and company news was limited, although the rising oil price gave some impetus to the energy sector names. Maybe later this week.

Is anyone covered in glory: The Lords passed Yvette Cooper’s Bill forcing the government not to leave the EU without a deal. The Commons passed the Lords’ minor amendments and it now has royal asset. Corbyn & May haven’t agreed anything yet, but May now heads to Berlin and Paris to talk extension. In Dublin, Michel Barnier stated the EU could move quickly with Customs Union amendments to the Political Declaration if needed. Meanwhile polls put the Conservatives on only 34.8%, Labour on … 34.8% and the Lib-Dems on 10.0% from 42.4%, 40.0% and 7.4% respectively at the last election.

Market Data 

Selected Global Aggregates (Total returns, unhedged)
MSCI AC World Equities (Local) up +1.14 (+0.09%) at 1,246 (YTD: 14.97%; 5YR: 56.0%)
MSCI AC World Equities (USD) up +13.04 (+0.15%) at 8,947 (YTD: 15.12%; 5YR: 45.7%)
Barclays Global Aggregate Bonds up +0.78 (+0.16%) at 488 (YTD: 1.87%; 5YR: 4.3%)

Selected Equity Indices (Capital returns)
S&P 500 up +3.03 (+0.10%) at 2,896 (YTD: 15.51%; 5YR: 54.7%)
NASDAQ up +15.19 (+0.19%) at 7,954 (YTD: 19.87%; 5YR: 90.1%)
Euro STOXX 50 down -9.41 (-0.27%) at 3,438 (YTD: 14.55%; 5YR: 8.0%)
FTSE 100 up +5.02 (+0.07%) at 7,452 (YTD: 10.76%; 5YR: 12.3%)
CAC 40 down -4.42 (-0.08%) at 5,472 (YTD: 15.67%; 5YR: 23.2%)
DAX down -46.35 (-0.39%) at 11,963 (YTD: 13.30%; 5YR: 25.8%)
Nikkei 225 up +40.94 (+0.19%) at 21,803 (YTD: 8.93%; 5YR: 52.5%)
Hang Seng up +32.56 (+0.11%) at 30,110 (YTD: 16.50%; 5YR: 31.8%)
MSCI Emerging Markets up +3.36 (+0.31%) at 1,088 (YTD: 12.71%; 5YR: 7.3%)

Selected Government Bond Yields
US 10 Year down -0.01 at 2.52 (began the year at 2.68; 5 years ago it was 2.69)
US 2 Year down -0.01 at 2.36 (began the year at 2.49; 5 years ago it was 0.36)
UK 10 Year unchanged at 1.12 (began the year at 1.28; 5 years ago it was 2.69)
Germany 10 Year down 0.00 at 0.00 (began the year at 0.24; 5 years ago it was 1.57)
France 10 Year down -0.01 at 0.36 (began the year at 0.70; 5 years ago it was 2.08)
Italy 10 Year down 0.00 at 2.48 (began the year at 2.74; 5 years ago it was 3.20)
Japan 10 Year down 0.00 at -0.05 (began the year at -0.01; 5 years ago it was 0.61)
Barclays EM Basket down 0.00 at 6.00 (began the year at 6.22; 5 years ago it was 5.70)

Selected Currencies
$ strengthened +0.0001 versus € (+0.01%) at 1.1266 ($: YTD: 1.62%; 5YR: 18.4%)
€ weakened -0.0030 versus £ (+0.26%) at 1.1621 (€: YTD: -4.23%; 5YR: 4.4%)
$ weakened -0.0033 versus £ (-0.25%) at 1.3092 ($: YTD: -2.71%; 5YR: 21.8%)
¥ strengthened +0.1000 versus $ (+0.09%) at 111.3600 (¥: YTD: 1.53%; 5YR: -8.5%)

Selected Commodities
Brent Crude ($/bbl) down -0.07 (-0.10%) at 70.73 (YTD: 33.03%; 5YR: -34.1%)
WTI Crude ($/bbl) up +1.32 (+2.09%) at 64.40 (YTD: 41.82%; 5YR: -37.2%)
Gold ($/ozt) up +1.00 (+0.08%) at 1298.48 (YTD: 1.25%; 5YR: -1.0%)
Copper ($/mt) up +74.00 (+1.16%) at 6475.00 (YTD: 8.55%; 5YR: -2.9%)

Data sourced from Bloomberg as of the close of last trading day.
YTD = Year-to-date return; 5YR = five year return

 

Nicholas Lowson Senior Portfolio Manager Kleinwort Hambros