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12 April 2019

12/04/2019

Morning Chat and Market Data

Morning Chat


A claim for good news: Many analysts see weekly jobless claims as the best signal for US economic health.  In the data series’ 52-year history, the US only entered recession after jobless claims rise from their lows by at least 40,000 or by 22,000 on the four-week moving average (taking from 7 to 20 months to do so).  Moreover, aside from a few false starts reversed within a few weeks, claims need to rise 60,000 or more to truly be an ominous harbinger. Yesterday’s jobless claims though were at a 49-year low 207,000 and still falling. Reassuring news really, isn’t it?

Some shares are flying: Stocks perform well with a tailwind, and the Brexit delay, well, quite probably to Halloween knowing Westminster, lifted UK airlines shares to the top of the FTSE100 when the index itself was grounded. EasyJet soared +8.95%, TUI flew in with +8.10% and BA’s parent International Airlines Group glided up 5.71%. Investors, having braced for turbulence in the travel sector by factoring in a probability of a UK crash-landing out of the EU before the lucrative summer holidays, found the new Article 50 extension agreed with the EU Commission kept them from heading for the emergency exits.

The case for luxury: French shares are having a good run this year with the CAC index faring better than most other European indices. The CAC is up 14.92% year-to-date thanks in part to another 0.66% gain yesterday. Companies like Vinci (+24.19% year-to-date), L’Oreal (+20.50%) and Sodexo (+19.50%) have helped lead the charge, but so too LVMH (27.71%), the luxury products group, reported yesterday and they did not disappoint. Thanks to strong Chinese demand for their luxury handbags & clothing goods alongside improving margins revenues were up 16% helping to push profits over €10billion and the shares up 4.43% yesterday alone. 

hiatus [n.] (hiatuses)from Latin, literally ‘gaping’, from hiare ‘gape’.

1. a break where a part is missing or lost, as in a manuscript; gap in a sequence; lacuna

2. any gap or interruption, as in continuity or time

3. Next week as the Morning Chat takes a brief “down keyboard” for Easter, returning Tuesday 23rd April.


Market Data


Selected Global Aggregates (Total returns, unhedged)
MSCI AC World Equities (Local) down -4.72 (-0.38%) at 1,241 (YTD: 14.54%; 5YR: 55.4%)
MSCI AC World Equities (USD) down -38.25 (-0.43%) at 8,909 (YTD: 14.63%; 5YR: 45.0%)
Barclays Global Aggregate Bonds up +0.72 (+0.15%) at 489 (YTD: 2.02%; 5YR: 4.5%)
 
Selected Equity Indices (Capital returns)
S&P 500 down -17.57 (-0.61%) at 2,878 (YTD: 14.81%; 5YR: 53.7%)
NASDAQ down -44.61 (-0.56%) at 7,909 (YTD: 19.20%; 5YR: 89.0%)
Euro STOXX 50 down -20.84 (-0.61%) at 3,417 (YTD: 13.85%; 5YR: 7.4%)
FTSE 100 down -26.32 (-0.35%) at 7,426 (YTD: 10.37%; 5YR: 11.9%)
CAC 40 down -35.36 (-0.65%) at 5,436 (YTD: 14.92%; 5YR: 22.4%)
DAX down -112.83 (-0.94%) at 11,851 (YTD: 12.23%; 5YR: 24.7%)
Nikkei 225  up +40.94 (+0.19%) at 21,803 (YTD: 8.93%; 5YR: 52.5%)
Hang Seng up +80.34 (+0.27%) at 30,157 (YTD: 16.68%; 5YR: 32.0%)
MSCI Emerging Markets up +4.94 (+0.45%) at 1,093 (YTD: 13.22%; 5YR: 7.7%)
 
Selected Government Bond Yields
US 10 Year down -0.01 at 2.51 (began the year at 2.69; 5 years ago it was 2.71)
US 2 Year down -0.01 at 2.34 (began the year at 2.50; 5 years ago it was 0.37)
UK 10 Year up +0.00 at 1.10 (began the year at 1.27; 5 years ago it was 2.69)
Germany 10 Year down -0.01 at -0.01 (began the year at 0.24; 5 years ago it was 1.58)
France 10 Year down -0.02 at 0.34 (began the year at 0.71; 5 years ago it was 2.08)
Italy 10 Year down -0.04 at 2.46 (began the year at 2.75; 5 years ago it was 3.20)
Japan 10 Year up +0.00 at -0.05 (began the year at -0.01; 5 years ago it was 0.61)
Barclays EM Basket down -0.01 at 5.24 (began the year at 5.98; 5 years ago it was 5.02)
 
Selected Currencies
$ weakened +0.0011 versus € (+0.10%) at 1.1273 ($: YTD: -1.39%; 5YR: -18.5%)
€ strengthened -0.0014 versus £ (-0.12%) at 1.1573 (€: YTD: 3.88%; 5YR: -4.5%)
$ strengthened -0.0002 versus £ (-0.02%) at 1.3047 ($: YTD: 2.44%; 5YR: -22.1%)
¥ strengthened -0.3000 versus $ (-0.27%) at 111.1250 (¥: YTD: 1.29%; 5YR: 9.1%)
 
Selected Commodities
Brent Crude ($/bbl) down -0.42 (-0.59%) at 70.65 (YTD: 39.71%; 5YR: -33.7%)
WTI Crude ($/bbl) down -0.34 (-0.53%) at 64.04 (YTD: 41.84%; 5YR: -38.2%)
Gold ($/ozt) up +3.00 (+0.23%) at 1303.00 (YTD: 1.88%; 5YR: 0.1%)
Copper ($/mt) up +65.50 (+1.02%) at 6498.00 (YTD: 8.94%; 5YR: -2.0%)
 
Data sourced from Bloomberg as of the close of last trading day.
YTD = Year-to-date return; 5YR = five year return

Nicholas Lowson Senior Portfolio Manager Kleinwort Hambros