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25 April 2019

25/04/2019

Morning Chat and Market Data

Morning chat

Not there yet: The S&P continues to flirt with a new all-time high, but the FTSE100 is still a little way off. The 7903.50 intraday all-time high from May 22 last year is still 5.5% above the 7471.75 close last night. OK, Brexit is an obvious drag; the latest news being a supposed plot – again – to oust Prime Minister May. But consider, the DAX hit its high in January 2018 and is still 9.1% lower. The CAC? The high was September 2000, 19.4% higher, with it’s much the same for the Italian MIB. Maybe there’s more to it than Brexit!

Some hits, some misses: A busy day in earnings-land so it’s no wonder the S&P500 see-sawed yesterday though closing down 0.22%. Facebook rallied 9.14% aftermarket with revenue-per-user up 16% year-on-year. Afterhours also saw Microsoft up 4.27% with earnings of $1.14 per share versus $1.00 expected. After swinging around wildly, Paypal managed to pay-off aftermarket up 0.26% (0.56% for the day). Paypal beat in Q1; earnings-per-share were ¢78 versus ¢68 expected, but Q2 guidance short-changed the stock. Avery Dennison was bit unstuck on the day but reapplied themselves in the aftermarket to close -3.56% overall as the economic climate hurt.

Health check: A trio of global health-care names reported yesterday – Roche, Novartis and Biogen. Roche held the middle ground, closing down 0.39%. The company had strong results across the board and saw their 8% rise in revenues beat expectations for the sixth quarter in a row. Great news, but their guidance is slightly uninspiring. Novartis was the upbeat entry, with the 13% rise in net income and improved guidance boosting shares up 2.53%. Then Biogen. Shares fell 2.52% despite the company’s earnings beat on robust sales of their Spinraza (up 42%). It was weakness in their Tecfidera drug that hurt.

Microsoft cracked open the window to the $1trillion market cap mark in aftermarket trading.
Electric car maker Tesla's shares down 2.0% after shocking underperformance of earnings.
AB Foods rallies 2.0% on 25% profit growth in Primark although sugar sales not so sweet.

Market Data

Selected Global Aggregates (Total returns, unhedged)
MSCI AC World Equities (Local) down -2.91 (-0.23%) at 1,258 (YTD: 16.14%; 5YR: 57.9%)
MSCI AC World Equities (USD) down -22.83 (-0.25%) at 9,024 (YTD: 16.11%; 5YR: 47.1%)
Barclays Global Aggregate Bonds up +1.12 (+0.23%) at 487 (YTD: 1.73%; 5YR: 3.8%)

Selected Equity Indices (Capital returns)
S&P 500 down -6.43 (-0.22%) at 2,927 (YTD: 16.77%; 5YR: 57.1%)
NASDAQ down -18.81 (-0.23%) at 8,102 (YTD: 22.11%; 5YR: 98.8%)
Euro STOXX 50 down -1.22 (-0.03%) at 3,503 (YTD: 16.70%; 5YR: 11.3%)
FTSE 100 down -51.32 (-0.68%) at 7,472 (YTD: 11.05%; 5YR: 11.8%)
CAC 40 down -15.63 (-0.28%) at 5,576 (YTD: 17.87%; 5YR: 25.5%)
DAX up +77.65 (+0.63%) at 12,313 (YTD: 16.61%; 5YR: 31.0%)
Nikkei 225 up +107.58 (+0.48%) at 22,308 (YTD: 11.46%; 5YR: 54.6%)
Hang Seng down -116.37 (-0.39%) at 29,689 (YTD: 14.87%; 5YR: 33.6%)
MSCI Emerging Markets down -5.25 (-0.48%) at 1,085 (YTD: 12.29%; 5YR: 9.2%)

Selected Government Bond Yields
US 10 Year up +0.01 at 2.53 (began the year at 2.68; 5 years ago it was 2.66)
US 2 Year up +0.00 at 2.32 (began the year at 2.49; 5 years ago it was 0.43)
UK 10 Year down -0.05 at 1.18 (began the year at 1.28; 5 years ago it was 2.64)
Germany 10 Year up +0.01 at -0.01 (began the year at 0.24; 5 years ago it was 1.48)
France 10 Year up +0.01 at 0.35 (began the year at 0.70; 5 years ago it was 1.97)
Italy 10 Year up +0.00 at 2.64 (began the year at 2.74; 5 years ago it was 3.10)
Japan 10 Year up +0.01 at -0.04 (began the year at -0.01; 5 years ago it was 0.62)
Barclays EM Basket up +0.00 at 6.02 (began the year at 6.22; 5 years ago it was 5.71)

Selected Currencies
$ strengthened +0.0001 versus € (+0.01%) at 1.1158 ($: YTD: 2.57%; 5YR: 19.4%)
€ strengthened +0.0012 versus £ (-0.10%) at 1.1568 (€: YTD: -3.79%; 5YR: 4.9%)
$ strengthened +0.0016 versus £ (+0.12%) at 1.2906 ($: YTD: -1.26%; 5YR: 23.2%)
¥ unchanged 0.0000 versus $ (0.00%) at 111.9200 (¥: YTD: 2.02%; 5YR: -8.7%)

Selected Commodities
Brent Crude ($/bbl) up +0.22 (+0.30%) at 74.09 (YTD: 39.35%; 5YR: -32.3%)
WTI Crude ($/bbl) down -0.56 (-0.84%) at 65.84 (YTD: 44.99%; 5YR: -35.6%)
Gold ($/ozt) up +0.92 (+0.07%) at 1276.67 (YTD: -0.45%; 5YR: -2.0%)
Copper ($/mt) up +41.00 (+0.64%) at 6448.00 (YTD: 8.10%; 5YR: -4.5%)

Data sourced from Bloomberg as of the close of last trading day.
YTD = Year-to-date return; 5YR = five year return

Nicholas Lowson Senior Portfolio Manager Kleinwort Hambros