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19 February 2019

19/02/2019

Market Data and Morning Chat

Morning Chat

An off day but results didn’t Reckitt: The UK FTSE closed down 0.24% over of weakness in UK banks and oil companies losing ground despite a modest rise in oil prices. There was also little news on US-China trade negotiations with the US closed for George Washington’s Birthday. On the plus side, Reckitt Benckiser led the FTSE with a solid 4.64% rally thanks to robust results. Boosted by sales in India and Brazil, like-for-like sales were up 3% with revenues of £12.6billion and China ex infant formulas was strong. It’s not the 4-6% gains of old, but it’s an improvement.

Go your own way: Seven Labour MPs concluded that loving Labour isn’t the right thing to do and split with the party. At a scathing press conference, high-profile MPs Chuka Umunna & Luciana Berger alongside Chris Leslie, Angela Smith, Mike Gapes, Gavin Shuker and Ann Coffey condemned the party for reasons including Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, the party’s leftward lurch, Labour being institutionally anti-Semitic and racist, bullying and not doing enough countering Brexit. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn expressed sorrow at their departure citing popular support for Labour’s positions, while others were more condemnatory. Looks like another lonely day in UK politics.

Thorn in their side: Labour’s split could trouble the party. In the US, it’s the Green New Deal (GND) that troubles Democrats. Advocated by Democrat Representative Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Ed Markey, the GND is a manifesto attain zero-emissions energy paid for by taxes for the rich within 10 years. To their Millennial constituents, it’s hard for Democrats not to agree, and most potential Presidential candidates have announced their support. Problem is the plan is seen as impracticable and very expensive. More, it’s a major lurch leftwards and reliant on unconventional economics which the Republicans are enjoying labelling as socialist.

Market Data 

Selected Global Aggregates (Total returns, unhedged)

MSCI AC World Equities (Local) up +2.71 (+0.23%) at 1,191 (YTD: 9.94%; 5YR: 51.6%)

MSCI AC World Equities (USD) up +25.05 (+0.29%) at 8,571 (YTD: 10.28%; 5YR: 41.9%)

Barclays Global Aggregate Bonds up +0.70 (+0.15%) at 483 (YTD: 0.83%; 5YR: 4.4%)

Selected Equity Indices (Capital returns)

S&P 500 up +29.87 (+1.09%) at 2,776 (YTD: 10.72%; 5YR: 50.8%)

NASDAQ up +45.46 (+0.61%) at 7,472 (YTD: 12.62%; 5YR: 74.9%)

Euro STOXX 50 up +3.54 (+0.11%) at 3,245 (YTD: 8.11%; 5YR: 4.0%)

FTSE 100 down -17.21 (-0.24%) at 7,219 (YTD: 7.30%; 5YR: 6.2%)

CAC 40 up +15.35 (+0.30%) at 5,169 (YTD: 9.26%; 5YR: 19.1%)

DAX down -0.60 (-0.01%) at 11,299 (YTD: 7.01%; 5YR: 17.0%)

Nikkei 225 up +20.80 (+0.10%) at 21,303 (YTD: 6.43%; 5YR: 44.3%)

Hang Seng down -72.52 (-0.26%) at 28,274 (YTD: 9.40%; 5YR: 24.8%)

MSCI Emerging Markets up +6.09 (+0.59%) at 1,037 (YTD: 7.35%; 5YR: 8.1%)

Selected Government Bond Yields

US 10 Year up +0.01 at 2.67 (began the year at 2.68; 5 years ago it was 2.74)

US 2 Year unchanged at 2.51 (began the year at 2.49; 5 years ago it was 0.31)

UK 10 Year up +0.01 at 1.17 (began the year at 1.28; 5 years ago it was 2.73)

Germany 10 Year up +0.00 at 0.11 (began the year at 0.24; 5 years ago it was 1.66)

France 10 Year down 0.00 at 0.54 (began the year at 0.70; 5 years ago it was 2.26)

Italy 10 Year down -0.02 at 2.74 (began the year at 2.74; 5 years ago it was 3.59)

Japan 10 Year down -0.01 at -0.03 (began the year at -0.01; 5 years ago it was 0.60)

Barclays EM Basket down -0.01 at 6.03 (began the year at 6.22; 5 years ago it was 5.87)

Selected Currencies

$ strengthened +0.0009 versus € (+0.08%) at 1.1302 ($: YTD: 1.31%; 5YR: 17.8%)

€ strengthened +0.0006 versus £ (-0.05%) at 1.1421 (€: YTD: -2.55%; 5YR: 6.5%)

$ strengthened +0.0018 versus £ (+0.14%) at 1.2908 ($: YTD: -1.27%; 5YR: 22.8%)

¥ weakened -0.1400 versus $ (-0.13%) at 110.7000 (¥: YTD: 0.94%; 5YR: -7.6%)

Selected Commodities

Brent Crude ($/bbl) unchanged 0.00 (0.00%) at 65.99 (YTD: 24.11%; 5YR: -40.3%)

WTI Crude ($/bbl) up +1.18 (+2.17%) at 55.59 (YTD: 22.42%; 5YR: -44.6%)

Gold ($/ozt) down -2.13 (-0.16%) at 1324.77 (YTD: 3.30%; 5YR: 1.0%)

Copper ($/mt) up +87.00 (+1.41%) at 6275.00 (YTD: 5.20%; 5YR: -12.8%)

Data sourced from Bloomberg as of the close of last trading day.

YTD = Year-to-date return; 5YR = five year return

Nicholas Lowson Senior Portfolio Manager Kleinwort Hambros