!css

11 June 2019

11/06/2019

Market Data and Morning Chat

Morning Chat

Not so soggy a day:It may have tipped it down yesterday, but European equities managed to fluff up a bit. OK, a German bank holiday – Pfingstmontag or Whit Monday – meant the DAX was closed (and might explain all the rain) but the CAC rallied 0.34%, the Italian MIB 0.61% and the FTSE100 0.59%. They were echoing the gains in Asia and those gains were easily ascribed to the change in Donald Trump’s tone over the tariffs he threatened Mexico with if they did not take action against illegal immigration. No new tariffs equals good news equals a market rally.

The US wasn’t jolted either: The S&P500 also managed a small 0.47% rally over the tariff news. It could have been knocked off course if the job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) was weak, but it came in much as expected which helps after Friday’s disappointing employment data. The US saw 7.449 million job openings, slightly lower than the 7.479 million expected, but marginally more than the 12-month average and still substantially more than the 5.888 million unemployed. Even better, hiring rose to a series high 240,000 which could point to a improvement in non-farm employment data next month.

Oh, and it was a soggy April too: The Office of National Statistics issued their monthly GDP estimate for April, and it was a disappointing -0.4% on the month leading to a positive 0.3% on the rolling three months. Forecasts were only calling for a 0.1% decline, but to be fair, analysts were trying to estimate a false-Brexit slowdown coupled with the closures by Japanese automakers. Indeed, the auto sector was the problem with production down 24%, driving through to a 13.4% decline in transport equipment producing a 3.9% manufacturing output decline in turn (rather than the -1.0% fall expected).

While the FTSE100 didn’t blink on the GDP numbers, sterling did, dropping below $1.27
Salesforce slipped 4.97% after they tabled a $15.3billion bid for big data firm Tableau
There’s no beef with Beyond Meat’s shares, up 21% and 600% since the recent IPO

Market Data

Selected Global Aggregates (Total returns, unhedged)
MSCI AC World Equities (Local) up +7.81 (+0.64%) at 1,236 (YTD: 14.10%; 5YR: 48.3%)
MSCI AC World Equities (USD) up +36.29 (+0.41%) at 8,932 (YTD: 14.93%; 5YR: 39.8%)
Barclays Global Aggregate Bonds down -1.51 (-0.30%) at 499 (YTD: 4.20%; 5YR: 6.1%)

Selected Equity Indices (Capital returns)
S&P 500 up +13.39 (+0.47%) at 2,887 (YTD: 15.15%; 5YR: 48.5%)
NASDAQ up +81.07 (+1.05%) at 7,823 (YTD: 17.90%; 5YR: 80.6%)
Euro STOXX 50 up +8.07 (+0.24%) at 3,386 (YTD: 12.83%; 5YR: 3.0%)
FTSE 100 up +43.60 (+0.59%) at 7,376 (YTD: 9.62%; 5YR: 7.8%)
CAC 40 up +18.45 (+0.34%) at 5,383 (YTD: 13.78%; 5YR: 18.2%)
DAX up +92.24 (+0.77%) at 12,045 (YTD: 14.08%; 5YR: 20.1%)
Nikkei 225 up +69.86 (+0.33%) at 21,204 (YTD: 5.94%; 5YR: 40.7%)
Hang Seng up +254.57 (+0.92%) at 27,833 (YTD: 7.69%; 5YR: 19.7%)
MSCI Emerging Markets up +14.65 (+1.45%) at 1,022 (YTD: 5.82%; 5YR: -3.2%)

Selected Government Bond Yields
US 10 Year down 0.00 at 2.14 (began the year at 2.68; 5 years ago it was 2.64)
US 2 Year down -0.01 at 1.90 (began the year at 2.49; 5 years ago it was 0.43)
UK 10 Year up +0.03 at 0.84 (began the year at 1.28; 5 years ago it was 2.71)
Germany 10 Year down -0.01 at -0.23 (began the year at 0.24; 5 years ago it was 1.40)
France 10 Year down -0.02 at 0.12 (began the year at 0.70; 5 years ago it was 1.75)
Italy 10 Year down -0.01 at 2.35 (began the year at 2.74; 5 years ago it was 2.79)
Japan 10 Year up +0.01 at -0.12 (began the year at -0.01; 5 years ago it was 0.60)
Barclays EM Basket down -0.03 at 6.11 (began the year at 6.22; 5 years ago it was 5.30)

Selected Currencies
$ weakened -0.0001 versus € (-0.01%) at 1.1317 ($: YTD: 1.18%; 5YR: 16.4%)
€ strengthened +0.0009 versus £ (-0.08%) at 1.1205 (€: YTD: -0.67%; 5YR: 10.8%)
$ strengthened +0.0008 versus £ (+0.06%) at 1.2681 ($: YTD: 0.51%; 5YR: 24.5%)
¥ weakened -0.0800 versus $ (-0.07%) at 108.6300 (¥: YTD: -0.95%; 5YR: -6.1%)

Selected Commodities
Brent Crude ($/bbl) up +0.30 (+0.47%) at 63.60 (YTD: 19.62%; 5YR: -42.4%)
WTI Crude ($/bbl) down -0.73 (-1.35%) at 53.26 (YTD: 17.29%; 5YR: -49.0%)
Gold ($/ozt) down -1.57 (-0.12%) at 1326.39 (YTD: 3.43%; 5YR: 5.2%)
Copper ($/mt) up +75.00 (+1.29%) at 5874.00 (YTD: -1.53%; 5YR: -12.0%)

Data sourced from Bloomberg as of the close of last trading day.
YTD = Year-to-date return; 5YR = five year return

Nicholas Lowson Senior Portfolio Manager Kleinwort Hambros