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20 May 2019

20/05/2019

Market Data and Morning Chat

Morning Chat

It wasn’t all bad: Last week started off with Donald Trump tweeting over trade – never a good thing – and the markets slipped. Markets also slipped Friday with the question of trade remaining the principal driver. In between though, markets didn’t do too badly, although US industrial and manufacturing data was quite disappointing. Over the whole week the US markets closed down 0.7% to 1.0%. However, Europe fared well with the FTSE100 up 2.0%, the DAX 1.5%, CAC 2.1% and Italian MIB up 1.1%. In Asia, weak auto sales and industrial production smashed China’s index by 2.0%

How was your journey today? There’s no big economic data this week, but there are some things to look forward to. For a start, train timetables here in the UK are changing which could provide a swathe of headlines – let’s hope not. We’ll also get UK inflation and retail trade. Analysts have significantly underestimate retail sales for three months running and are expecting -0.4% this time – let’s hope they make it four months. There’s also the US Fed minutes and European Markit PMIs – they often move the markets. Plus, from Thursday to Sunday, the European elections – with results next week.

Communist, democrat… An intriguing collusion… Fair exchange, tit-for-tat… Comradeship in profusion: Words from 1986’s musical Chess, a play about Cold War tensions, but they echo today in the US-China trade talks. Since Christmas, equity markets had rallied on the assumption of a trade deal being struck. Now, we’re seeing another bout of tit-for-tat tariffs and restrictions as Trump effectively blacklisted Huawei with his security executive order. Action like that does make a deal look more remote, but not necessarily dead – just ask Theresa May, her deal’s set for another run in Parliament despite talks with Labour ending without an agreement.

Under Armour shares ride up 7.8% in afterhours trading on analyst upgrade

Market Data

Selected Global Aggregates (Total returns, unhedged)
MSCI AC World Equities (Local) down -5.43 (-0.44%) at 1,226 (YTD: 13.13%; 5YR: 52.2%)
MSCI AC World Equities (USD) down -38.62 (-0.44%) at 8,836 (YTD: 13.69%; 5YR: 42.9%)
Barclays Global Aggregate Bonds down -0.28 (-0.06%) at 490 (YTD: 2.27%; 5YR: 3.8%)

Selected Equity Indices (Capital returns)
S&P 500 down -16.79 (-0.58%) at 2,860 (YTD: 14.07%; 5YR: 52.7%)
NASDAQ down -81.76 (-1.04%) at 7,816 (YTD: 17.80%; 5YR: 90.8%)
Euro STOXX 50 down -12.92 (-0.38%) at 3,426 (YTD: 14.13%; 5YR: 8.3%)
FTSE 100 down -4.89 (-0.07%) at 7,349 (YTD: 9.22%; 5YR: 8.0%)
CAC 40 down -9.88 (-0.18%) at 5,438 (YTD: 14.96%; 5YR: 22.1%)
DAX down -71.43 (-0.58%) at 12,239 (YTD: 15.91%; 5YR: 27.0%)
Nikkei 225 up +51.64 (+0.24%) at 21,302 (YTD: 6.43%; 5YR: 51.3%)
Hang Seng down -185.05 (-0.66%) at 27,761 (YTD: 7.41%; 5YR: 21.6%)
MSCI Emerging Markets down -14.75 (-1.46%) at 996 (YTD: 3.17%; 5YR: -3.3%)

Selected Government Bond Yields
US 10 Year up +0.01 at 2.40 (began the year at 2.68; 5 years ago it was 2.51)
US 2 Year up +0.01 at 2.21 (began the year at 2.49; 5 years ago it was 0.33)
UK 10 Year down -0.04 at 1.03 (began the year at 1.28; 5 years ago it was 2.61)
Germany 10 Year up +0.00 at -0.10 (began the year at 0.24; 5 years ago it was 1.35)
France 10 Year up +0.00 at 0.29 (began the year at 0.70; 5 years ago it was 1.83)
Italy 10 Year up +0.02 at 2.68 (began the year at 2.74; 5 years ago it was 3.26)
Japan 10 Year up +0.01 at -0.05 (began the year at -0.01; 5 years ago it was 0.59)
Barclays EM Basket up +0.01 at 6.16 (began the year at 6.22; 5 years ago it was 5.50)

Selected Currencies
$ strengthened +0.0011 versus € (+0.10%) at 1.1153 ($: YTD: 2.61%; 5YR: 18.5%)
€ weakened -0.0010 versus £ (+0.09%) at 1.1413 (€: YTD: -2.48%; 5YR: 7.8%)
$ strengthened +0.0003 versus £ (+0.02%) at 1.2728 ($: YTD: 0.14%; 5YR: 24.4%)
¥ weakened -0.1800 versus $ (-0.16%) at 110.1300 (¥: YTD: 0.43%; 5YR: -8.1%)

Selected Commodities
Brent Crude ($/bbl) up +0.59 (+0.81%) at 73.85 (YTD: 38.89%; 5YR: -33.6%)
WTI Crude ($/bbl) down -0.11 (-0.17%) at 62.76 (YTD: 38.21%; 5YR: -38.5%)
Gold ($/ozt) down -1.28 (-0.10%) at 1276.27 (YTD: -0.48%; 5YR: -1.4%)
Copper ($/mt) down -44.00 (-0.72%) at 6056.00 (YTD: 1.53%; 5YR: -11.7%)

Data sourced from Bloomberg as of the close of last trading day.
YTD = Year-to-date return; 5YR = five year return

Nicholas Lowson Senior Portfolio Manager Kleinwort Hambros