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11 February 2019

11/02/2019

Market Data and Morning Chat

Morning Chat

So much to anticipate: This week sees the preliminary UK Q4 GDP estimate released (9:30am today); expectations are for +0.2% after Q3’s +0.6%. Brexit slowdown and all that, but still positive. We also get inflation, industrial production (also today) and retail sales data. Wednesday sees Japanese GDP data, while Thursday Germany publishes its Q4 GDP number which has been foreshadowed at a bit above 0.0% thus avoiding technical recession. There is also EU and French employment data, US inflation and manufacturing data and the JOLTS report. So, quite a bit that could move the market aside from US-China trade talks.

Is it too early? With Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar announcing her candidacy for the Democratic nomination for the 2020 Presidential election, all the expected names bar the real biggies Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Michael Bloomberg and Beto O’Rourke have come forward. In polling (yup, they’re polling already) Biden leads – if he joins – at 32.8% (RealClearPolitics average) and only Bernie polls over 10% of the rest, although Kamala Harris does on recent polls. More worrying for the Democrats maybe is the three most recent polls – Emerson College's, Rasmussen's and the less reliable Optimus' – only Biden and Bloomberg beat Donald Trump head-to-head!

Better foundation, no concealer: Coty shares have collapsed since they paid $12.5 billion for 43 P&G beauty brands including CoverGirl and Max Factor in 2016 – by Thursday close they were down 74% since the deal. Beset by supply chain worries, component shortages, hurricane impacts and poor integration of distribution centres, expectations were low. However, new CEO Pierre Laubies appears to be having an impact already. It still early days, but Friday’s results showed gross margins improved, revenues were not down as much as expected, and premium brands added gloss. The news was good enough to propel the shares up 32%.

Market Data 

Selected Global Aggregates (Total returns, unhedged)
MSCI AC World Equities (Local) down -3.26 (-0.28%) at 1,162 (YTD: 7.30%; 5YR: 49.6%)
MSCI AC World Equities (USD) down -24.75 (-0.30%) at 8,350 (YTD: 7.44%; 5YR: 40.1%)
Barclays Global Aggregate Bonds up +0.11 (+0.02%) at 484 (YTD: 1.03%; 5YR: 5.0%)

Selected Equity Indices (Capital returns)
S&P 500 up +1.83 (+0.07%) at 2,708 (YTD: 8.02%; 5YR: 48.8%)
NASDAQ up +9.85 (+0.14%) at 7,298 (YTD: 9.99%; 5YR: 74.1%)
Euro STOXX 50 down -15.14 (-0.48%) at 3,136 (YTD: 4.47%; 5YR: 1.9%)
FTSE 100 down -22.40 (-0.32%) at 7,071 (YTD: 5.10%; 5YR: 6.0%)
CAC 40 down -23.92 (-0.48%) at 4,962 (YTD: 4.88%; 5YR: 15.8%)
DAX down -115.24 (-1.05%) at 10,907 (YTD: 3.29%; 5YR: 15.1%)
Nikkei 225 down -418.11 (-2.01%) at 20,333 (YTD: 1.59%; 5YR: 38.1%)
Hang Seng up +171.94 (+0.62%) at 28,118 (YTD: 8.79%; 5YR: 28.0%)
MSCI Emerging Markets down -5.94 (-0.57%) at 1,036 (YTD: 7.27%; 5YR: 9.7%)

Selected Government Bond Yields
US 10 Year up +0.01 at 2.64 (began the year at 2.68; 5 years ago it was 2.73)
US 2 Year up +0.00 at 2.47 (began the year at 2.49; 5 years ago it was 0.33)
UK 10 Year down -0.03 at 1.15 (began the year at 1.28; 5 years ago it was 2.74)
Germany 10 Year up +0.01 at 0.10 (began the year at 0.24; 5 years ago it was 1.69)
France 10 Year up +0.01 at 0.55 (began the year at 0.70; 5 years ago it was 2.28)
Italy 10 Year down -0.02 at 2.94 (began the year at 2.74; 5 years ago it was 3.68)
Japan 10 Year down -0.02 at -0.03 (began the year at -0.01; 5 years ago it was 0.60)
Barclays EM Basket down 0.00 at 6.01 (began the year at 6.22; 5 years ago it was 5.88)

Selected Currencies
$ strengthened +0.0006 versus € (+0.05%) at 1.1324 ($: YTD: 1.12%; 5YR: 17.0%)
€ weakened -0.0010 versus £ (+0.09%) at 1.1423 (€: YTD: -2.57%; 5YR: 5.6%)
$ weakened -0.0006 versus £ (-0.05%) at 1.2936 ($: YTD: -1.49%; 5YR: 21.4%)
¥ weakened -0.2700 versus $ (-0.25%) at 109.9900 (¥: YTD: 0.30%; 5YR: -6.7%)

Selected Commodities
Brent Crude ($/bbl) down -0.09 (-0.15%) at 61.77 (YTD: 16.17%; 5YR: -43.1%)
WTI Crude ($/bbl) up +0.08 (+0.15%) at 52.72 (YTD: 16.10%; 5YR: -47.2%)
Gold ($/ozt) down -3.33 (-0.25%) at 1311.18 (YTD: 2.24%; 5YR: 1.5%)
Copper ($/mt) down -36.00 (-0.58%) at 6210.00 (YTD: 4.11%; 5YR: -13.0%)

Data sourced from Bloomberg as of the close of last trading day.
YTD = Year-to-date return; 5YR = five year return

 

 

Nicholas Lowson Senior Portfolio Manager Kleinwort Hambros