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11 November 2019

11/11/2019

Market Data and Morning Chat

Morning Chat 

I guess no one did tell Donald: Unless you were sitting in Athens or Buenos Aires, you would be looking on last week as a reasonably good time for equities, with a solid gain for the week.  Yes, the UK was laggardly, but even so still managed nearly 1%, while Japan and the continental exchanges were up over 2%.  The S&P500 – which saw a new all-time high – recorded a fifth straight week of gains.  The markets were tempered a little Friday though as President Donald Trump countered Chinese claims of an co-ordinated tariff roll-back by denying that he had agreed.

Now we’ll find out: We’ve had Q3 GDP data for a number of economies, but not yet for either the UK or Germany. Both are coming off negative second quarters and with a technical recession defined by two quarters of falling growth, either could be in one now.  The UK’s pace – announced later today – is expected to be +0.4% quarter-on-quarter avoiding the problem. Germany meanwhile sees their Q3 data Thursday with forecasters expecting -0.1% and recession. Yet it’s not unfamiliar ground. Since the Wall came down 30 years ago, Germany’s had seven, the US four and the UK only two. 

Anything else: Aside from GDP data for the UK and Germany, the news slate still remains reasonably full.  Maybe we’ll get a phase one US-China trade deal – depending on Trump’s tweets no doubt.  We also get industrial production from the US and UK, which is expected to fall in both cases, as well as consumer and producer inflation data which should remain muted.  Assuming those expectations are met, it likely adds pressure to calls for lower rates. On the other side of the world, China will release their industrial output numbers – which might explain some enthusiasm for a tariff roll-back.

Spain went to the polls yesterday but the numbers don’t look to have broken the deadlock.
… The Socialist won, but the right-wing Popular Party and Vox made large gains
Hong Kong stocks tumbled nearly 3% today as police injure two protesters – one critically
The US bond market is closed for Veteran’s Day today but the stock market remains open
Games Workshop (+19.6%) is the model company issuing a monster of a trading statement 
Take-Two Interactive (+0.4%) sets a better-than expected score of $2.02 earnings-per-share

Market Data


Selected Global Aggregates (Total returns, unhedged)    
MSCI AC World Equities (Local) up +0.80 (+0.06%) at 1,327 (YTD: 22.53%; 5YR: 54.2%)
MSCI AC World Equities (USD) up +10.22 (+0.11%) at 9,573 (YTD: 23.18%; 5YR: 49.8%)
Barclays Global Aggregate Bonds down -3.16 (-0.62%) at 505 (YTD: 5.53%; 5YR: 10.5%)
    
Selected Equity Indices (Capital returns)    
S&P 500 up +7.90 (+0.26%) at 3,093 (YTD: 23.39%; 5YR: 51.6%)    
NASDAQ up +40.80 (+0.48%) at 8,475 (YTD: 27.73%; 5YR: 81.9%)    
Euro STOXX 50 down -7.03 (-0.19%) at 3,700 (YTD: 23.26%; 5YR: 19.2%)    
FTSE 100 down -47.03 (-0.63%) at 7,359 (YTD: 9.38%; 5YR: 11.0%)    
CAC down -1.29 (-0.02%) at 5,890 (YTD: 24.50%; 5YR: 38.8%)    
DAX down -60.90 (-0.46%) at 13,229 (YTD: 25.28%; 5YR: 41.2%)    
Nikkei 225  down -60.03 (-0.26%) at 23,332 (YTD: 16.57%; 5YR: 36.3%)    
Hang Seng down -796.20 (-2.88%) at 26,855 (YTD: 3.90%; 5YR: 12.8%)    
MSCI Emerging Markets down -8.73 (-0.81%) at 1,065 (YTD: 10.26%; 5YR: 7.2%)    
    
Selected Government Bond Yields    
US 2 Year unchanged at 1.67 (began the year at 2.49; 5 years ago it was 0.53)    
US 10 Year unchanged at 1.94 (began the year at 2.68; 5 years ago it was 2.36)    
UK 10 Year down 0.00 at 0.79 (began the year at 1.28; 5 years ago it was 2.24)    
Germany 10 Year down -0.01 at -0.27 (began the year at 0.24; 5 years ago it was 0.83)    
France 10 Year down 0.00 at 0.02 (began the year at 0.70; 5 years ago it was 1.17)    
Italy 10 Year up +0.00 at 1.19 (began the year at 2.74; 5 years ago it was 2.33)    
Japan 10 Year down -0.01 at -0.07 (began the year at -0.01; 5 years ago it was 0.49)    
Barclays EM Basket up +0.01 at 5.47 (began the year at 6.22; 5 years ago it was 5.19)
    
Selected Currencies    
$ weakened -0.0007 versus € (-0.06%) at 1.1027 ($: YTD: 3.71%; 5YR: 11.5%)    
€ weakened -0.0026 versus £ (+0.22%) at 1.1615 (€: YTD: -4.18%; 5YR: 9.7%)    
$ weakened -0.0035 versus £ (-0.27%) at 1.2807 ($: YTD: -0.48%; 5YR: 19.4%)    
¥ strengthened +0.2600 versus $ (+0.24%) at 108.9300 (¥: YTD: -0.67%; 5YR: 6.2%)    
    
Selected Commodities    
Brent Crude ($/bbl) down -0.93 (-1.48%) at 62.04 (YTD: 16.68%; 5YR: -22.8%)    
WTI Crude ($/bbl) up +0.09 (+0.16%) at 57.24 (YTD: 26.05%; 5YR: -27.2%)    
Gold ($/ozt) up +5.89 (+0.40%) at 1464.81 (YTD: 14.22%; 5YR: 25.8%)    
Copper ($/mt) down -50.00 (-0.84%) at 5924.00 (YTD: -0.69%; 5YR: -11.8%)    
    
Data sourced from Bloomberg as of the close of last trading day.    
YTD = Year-to-date return; 5YR = five year return    

Nicholas Lowson Senior Portfolio Manager Kleinwort Hambros