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CIO Blog : Tails of the unexpected VIII

Investment Strategy - December 2020
Fahad Kamal - Chief Investment Officer

Markets are exquisitely unpredictable, and each year events – financial, economic, geopolitical, or otherwise – occur which few see coming, but cause powerful ripples to the prices of securities. Instead of consensus-tinged forecasting, we continue an annual tradition of exploring which unlikely, but feasible, events are not priced by markets in the year ahead. These Black Swans, pushed to the overlooked “tails” of probability distributions, have the potential for outsized impact. If they occurred, how would our strategies perform? Do we have plans in place to protect portfolios against adverse market events? Are we positioned to prosper?

We hope you enjoy the eighth edition of our annual Tails of the Unexpected.

Download: KH CIO Blog - Tails of the unexpected VIII - December 2020

 

1 - Early to Rise
Life goes back to normal quickly, leading money velocity, employment, aggregate demand and consumer confidence to rise...
Life goes back to normal quickly, leading money velocity, employment, aggregate demand and consumer confidence to rise dramatically, which in turn generates inflation and forces central banks to increase interest rates.
1 - Early to Rise
2 - The strongest FTSE since Beckham
The UK equity market outperforms the US market for the first time in years; 2021 becomes an excellent time to have...
The UK equity market outperforms the US market for the first time in years; 2021 becomes an excellent time to have increased UK positions amidst a structural shift towards value and away from growth.
2 - The strongest FTSE since Beckham
3 - This too shall Passive
The euphoria following vaccine announcements fades as the new normal looks a lot like the old one - except with even...
The euphoria following vaccine announcements fades as the new normal looks a lot like the old one - except with even higher debt, slower growth, higher taxes and poorer productivity gains. A Darwinian corporate landscape favours active managers.
3 - This too shall Passive
4 - Kicking up a Fusilli
Eurozone breakup fears re-emerge, and this time it’s not the UK .
Eurozone breakup fears re-emerge, and this time it’s not the UK .
4 - Kicking up a Fusilli
5 - Bit-by-bit
Bitcoin hits $100,000 in value as the market acknowledges it as a real currency that can no longer be ignored.
Bitcoin hits $100,000 in value as the market acknowledges it as a real currency that can no longer be ignored.
5 - Bit-by-bit