March 2023 - Monthly House Views
Mixed Signals
The economy is still ailing from the double shock of Covid and the Ukraine war, which makes it hard to read the usual indicators.Surveys of industrial and household sentiment suggest risks of recession continue to run high. The same message can be read into bond markets: medium-/long-term yields are well below short-term rates. Such an inversion of the yield curve suggests that markets are expecting sharp downturns in the economy and inflation, to the point that interest rates will have to drop off significantly. On the other hand, the latest actual indicators show developed economies looking fairly healthy, holding up well despite the spike in inflation and interest rates, and the more recent energy crisis in Europe. Labour markets are booming, with levels of employment above what they were pre-Covid in most economies. The rebound in equity markets since the start of the year also sends a clear signal that expectations are improving as investors move away from a scenario of imminent recession. Read more in our March 2023 House Views by clicking on the document below. |
Jonathan Needham, Head of Trust and Succession Planning for Société Générale Private Banking, shares his succession...
Rates Nearing Their Peak
How the Lionesses highlight the vast economic potential of championing gender equity everywhere
With more than two billion iPhones sold since its debut in 2007, Tim Cook yesterday unveiled the latest model of the...
Economies exit the summer at different speeds